ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF SUBSIDIARY FARMING ACTIVITIES IN UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This study presents an econometric analysis of subsidiary farming activities with a focus on forecasting agricultural production using trend models. Based on data from the Kashkadarya region for the years 2011–2024, the paper explores the dynamics of early, mid-season, and late crops, including vegetables, melons, onions, and garlic. Trend models were constructed using least squares estimation, while correlation and regression analyses were conducted to assess statistical significance. Findings show significant growth in production volumes and strong model adequacy, particularly for early vegetables and off-season crops. The study underscores the relevance of statistical forecasting tools in improving agricultural planning, resource utilization, and food security