Use of mathematical model of an artificial neural network for current forecasting of tax base of region
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Abstract
In article the method, allowing to use possibility of a neural(neuronic) network for forecasting of tax base of region is offered. The given method is suitable for working out of the positive shortterm forecast.
Description
Forecasting becomes an integral tool for studying and using it in the system of socio-economic relations. One of the most important areas of application for the development and use of forecasts is the system of taxation.
Tax forecasting is an assessment of the tax potential of the regions and the receipt of taxes and fees in the budget system (consolidated, regional and territorial budgets) and is based on the results of the socio-economic development of the subjects of the Republic.
The forecasting process includes determining the tax bases for each tax, monitoring the dynamics of tax receipts over several time periods, and calculating the levels of collection of taxes and fees. There are three main stages in forecasting: retrospective, positive and normative analysis.
In the context of strengthening and expanding the tax base of the republican budget, as the main stabilizing factor in the state economy, the most important task of tax forecasting at the stage of retrospective analysis is a comprehensive study of the effectiveness of the tax process and the changes taking place in the tax system in conjunction with the development of the macroeconomic situation in the regions based on forecasting development trends tax base